About This Model
Developed by Sino Africa Trading PLC(Program Architect & Strategic Developer) for EDR (Ethio-Djibouti Railway) leadership. Consortium: PWCT / Agility Global, Sino Africa, TooSharp Engineering. Assumptions cite the Strategic Plan annexes, project team inputs, and market references. Detailed revenue math is on the Revenue Model tab.
Legend
Exchange Rate
USD / ETB — Current
1 USD = 155 ETB
Market-aligned snapshot locked March 27, 2026 for corridor fee translation. EDR Mid-Term Plan assumed 130 ETB/USD (July 2025). Approx. 16% ETB depreciation vs plan rate; ETB plan figures are not restated.
ETB Plan Rate — Reference
1 USD = 130 ETB
EDR Mid-Term Strategic Plan 2025–2028, Annex 8 footnote — preserve original ETB values when comparing to plan-era documents.
Volume & Market Size
Current Freight Volume
~4M tonsBaseline corridor throughput validated by the project team (Feb 2026). Anchors Annex 2 mix for the “Current ~4M” scenario.
EDR Plan · Project team Feb 2026
Freight Volume Trajectory
2.77M → 5.4MPlanned ramp from Plan Year 1 through Plan Year 3 per Annex 2 Freight Transport Annual Plan — drives scenario chips on the Revenue Model tab.
Annex 2 Freight Transport Annual Plan
Passenger Volume
326K → 563KPassenger transport forecast per Annex 6 — used for booking-fee scaling and Strategic Plan KPI context.
Annex 6 Passenger Transport Forecast
Total Freight Clients
~1,200Addressable importer/exporter base across corridor modes — adoption % applied against this pool for subscription and transaction models.
Estimated · Project Plan p.7
National Cargo Share Target
16% → 30%KPI K8 trajectory from Annex 1 — corridor share of national logistics volume.
KPI K8 · Annex 1
Platform Fee Schedule
Each line shows the modeled value, source type (see Legend), rationale, and traceability. Sliders on the Revenue Model tab may override defaults.
Tonnage & coverage
Estimated
Revenue cargo fee
Applies to revenue tons (excludes empty-container share). Scales with Annex 2 freight mix and ton-coverage % on the model.
Estimated · Revenue Model default
Estimated
Empty container fee
Reduced rate on empty-container tons (~2.8% of covered tons) when “apply reduced rate” is enabled in the model.
Estimated · Model toggle
Estimated
Ton coverage on platform
Share of corridor tons filed through Smart Corridor; Year 2 auto-ramps per model rules.
Estimated · Core assumptions
Manifest fees
EDR Strategic Plan
Sea vessel manifest
Digital filing fee per eligible sea vessel call at modeled adoption; scales with vessel slider.
EDR Strategic Plan · Fee schedule extract
EDR Strategic Plan
Land / rail manifest
Per truck/rail manifest submitted digitally; scales with land/rail volume and adoption %.
EDR Strategic Plan · Fee schedule extract
Transactional & corridor services
Estimated
Transaction processing
Per billable digital event; model uses the low end of the published band unless you move the slider.
Estimated · Fee schedule band
Estimated
GPS / IoT tracking
Per trackable shipment: active clients × shipments/client × GPS adoption × $15 (see Revenue Model for full formula).
Estimated · Model (GPS section)
Market Reference
White Glove clearance
Premium managed clearance on a subset of shipments; aligns with market reference range $100–300.
Market Reference · Cross-check Platform Fee
Estimated
Import / Export handling
Per eligible I/E shipment at modeled digital adoption; corridor volume from I/E slider.
Estimated · Model (I/E section)
Estimated
Passenger digital booking
Per digital booking on Annex 6 passenger base; model uses low end unless you raise the fee slider.
Estimated · Annex 6 passenger forecast
Subscription Tiers
Loyalty $30/mo — corridor loyalty bundle for recurring shippers.
Premium $75/mo — priority desk + analytics add-ons.
Non-Member $0 — pay-per-use digital access.
Mix assumption: 30% Loyalty + 8% Premium of active clients (remainder non-member or transactional-only).
✨ New Revenue Streams
FF / Multimodal: 3% capture of EDR Global Logistics (Annex 8 line — 2.46B ETB Y1 anchor).
Corridor Data & Analytics: $500/mo per subscriber (15 subscribers baseline).
White Glove Clearance: $150/shipment — cross-reference Platform Fee Schedule.
Warehouse — Storage Mgmt.: digital platform fee only ($2/daybeyond free time) on top of EDR's existing storage tariff — Annex 8 / Indode context.
Warehouse — Load/Unload (Indode): digital recording fee ($5/event); physical handling revenue remains EDR's. ~85% of volume at Indode per plan.
Adoption & Ramp Assumptions
Year 1: 80% adoption of addressable clients.
Year 2: 95% adoption — expanded digital mandate.
Throughput: 150 transactions / client / year (low end of the fee schedule band; each shipment generates multiple billable events).
PWCT Benchmark — Kuwait: 4× faster clearance vs manual baseline (Plan p.3) — informs White Glove and handling adoption narratives.
Model Metadata
| Developed by | Sino Africa Trading PLC — Program Architect & Strategic Developer |
| For presentation to | EDR (Ethio-Djibouti Railway) leadership |
| Consortium partners | PWCT / Agility Global · Sino Africa · TooSharp Engineering |
| Based on | EDR Mid-Term Strategic Plan 2025–2028 (July 2025) |
| Exchange rate locked | 1 USD = 155 ETB as of March 27, 2026 |
| Plan rate (reference) | 1 USD = 130 ETB (EDR Strategic Plan assumption, July 2025) |
| Volume basis | 4M tons (Feb 2026 actuals) — ahead of EDR Plan Y2 target of 3.67M |
| ETB plan figures | Kept at original values — NOT restated at current FX |
| New streams | Zero revenue today — all processes are currently manual |
| Principle | Low-end fee ranges · Phased adoption · All assumptions documented above |